US Seasonality Strategy

Index: All charts, tables and KPIs update when you switch index › NDX data from 1986 (9 cycles); S&P from 1953 (18 cycles)

ⓘ Executive Summary — US Seasonality Strategy

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The Seasonality Strategy is a systematic tactical allocation framework exploiting Yale Hirsch's Presidential Election Cycle — a well-documented 4-year pattern. By applying three allocation modes (cash, 1× equity, 2× leveraged) based on historical quarterly win-rates, the strategy has delivered 2.5× the S&P 500 and 2.7× the Nasdaq-100 per average 4-year cycle since inception.

Core thesis: U.S. equity markets follow predictable seasonal patterns tied to the 4-year presidential election cycle. Years 1–2 are historically weak; Years 3–4 are stronger. Within each year, specific quarters carry statistically significant win-rates — enabling disciplined over/under-weighting.

Allocation engine — 3 modes: Mode A (cash/deposit, ~0.9%/quarter) in low-probability quarters. Mode B (1× via VOO) in moderate quarters. Mode C (2× leveraged via SPUU) only in highest-confidence quarters (win-rates 72–94% for S&P; up to 100% for NDX Y1Q2). The allocation map differs slightly between S&P and Nasdaq-100, reflecting their distinct seasonal patterns.

S&P 500 backtested (1953–2024, 18 cycles): Avg 4-year cycle return 97% vs 38% buy-and-hold. Strategy beats S&P in 15 of 18 cycles. Only 1 negative cycle (2005–2008, −37%). Win rate: 84% of quarters vs 68% for buy-and-hold.

Nasdaq-100 backtested (1986–2024, 9 cycles): Avg 4-year cycle return ~241% vs ~91% buy-and-hold. Key difference: NDX Year 1 uses 2× leverage in Q2/Q3/Q4 (vs S&P which uses deposit in Q3); NDX Year 4 goes to deposit in Q3/Q4 (vs S&P which stays 1× through Y4Q3). NDX strategy underperformed in 2017–2020 cycle (−41pp) due to 2018 drawdown with 2× leverage, and missed 2020 rally (deposit in Y4Q3/Q4).

2025–2028 tailwinds: (1) Trump not running in 2028 → historically strengthens Year 3 (2027). (2) Unified government (Republican sweep) → academic research links to higher excess equity returns. (3) No recession in 2025 → very low recession risk for 2026–2027.

Implementation: UBS AG Actively Managed Certificate (AMC). Trading costs ~5 bps/trade, Swiss stamp duty savings 15 bps. Monthly rebalancing. Leveraged instruments only when seasonality ≥80%.

◆ Current Cycle: 2025–2028 — Now in Year 2 (Mid-Term, 2026)

Current Phase

Year 2

Mid-term (2026) — Year 3 (2027) is the alpha engine ahead

Govt Divided?

Unified → higher returns

Incumbent Running?

Strengthens 2027 (Year 3)

Recession in 2025?

Low risk for 2026–2027

📈 Annual Returns: Strategy vs S&P 500 (1953–2024)

Strategy (Seasonality)

S&P 500

■ Quarterly Win-Rate, Avg Return & Allocation Mode — S&P 500

Average quarterly returns and % positive since 1953 (18 S&P cycles). Allocation mode per quarter shown below.

📌 Cycle-by-Cycle: S&P 500

Cycle	Yr1	Yr2	Yr3	Yr4	S&P Cycle	Strategy	Delta

📈 Avg Return by Cycle Year

Year	S&P 500	Strategy	Ratio

◆ Allocation Framework — 3 Modes

Defensive / Cash

Applied in low-probability quarters. Capital preserved in short-term deposits earning ~0.9%/quarter. Avoids drawdowns in historically weak periods.

Win-rate < 55% or avg return ≤ 0

1× Equity (VOO)

Standard S&P 500 exposure. Applied in moderate-probability quarters where participation is warranted but statistical evidence doesn't support leverage.

Moderate win-rate, average returns

2× Leveraged (SPUU)

2× daily leveraged S&P 500 ETF. Deployed only in highest-confidence windows. Win-rates reach 72–100% in these quarters. Seasonality threshold ≥80%.

Seasonality ≥ 80% | Win-rate ≥ 72%

Allocation Map by Presidential Cycle Quarter — S&P 500

ⓘ 2025–2028 Structural Factors

Factor	Condition	Impact on Current Cycle

Disclaimer: For informational and analytical purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Backtested returns are hypothetical. Leveraged instruments (2× ETFs) amplify both gains and losses and are restricted to high-confidence windows (seasonality ≥80%). NDX data since 1986 (9 complete cycles); S&P data since 1953 (18 complete cycles). Data: Shiller Data (shillerdata.com), Blanc WM analysis, public academic research. Blanc WM, July 2025.