IREN · NVDA · COPX · NBIS · DRAM — Arbitrage Notes II

Thesis

Five secondary-market 200% Outperformance Certificates on IREN, NVDA, COPX, NBIS and DRAM. All carry 200% upside / 100% downside participation. NBIS, NVDA, COPX now above fix. MTM: NVDA +5% · COPX +1% · NBIS −0.3% · IREN −1% · DRAM −8%. Best MTM NVDA (+5%), worst DRAM (−8%). Issuers: Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P) · Morgan Stanley (A+).

Best MTM

+5%

NVDA — offer 110% ↑

IREN Offer

89%

IREN offer · MTM −1% ↓

Max Gain (NBIS)

+164%

At cap, from offer ↓

Product Parameters — 5 Certificates

Parameter	NBIS −0.3% ⚠+164%	DRAM −8% ⚠+105%	NVDA +5% ✓+28%	IREN −1% ⚠+139%	COPX +1% ✓+57%
Rank (by MTM)	#3	#5 WORST	#1 BEST	#4	#2
ISIN	XS3356543580	XS3373055394	XS3356546336	XS3334497818	XS3373010969
Issuer	Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P)	Morgan Stanley (A+)	Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P)	Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P)	Morgan Stanley (A+)
Underlying	Nebius Group (NBIS)	Roundhill Mem. ETF	NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)	IREN Ltd (IREN)	Global X Copper ETF
Type	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%
Participation	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn
Initial Fix / Strike	$222	$62	$213	$50	$86
Ref Price (today)	$224 (+0.9%)	$60 (−3%)	$229 (+8%)	$44 (−12%)	$87 (+1%)
Above Entry	+0.9%	−3%	+8%	−12%	+1%
Maturity	28 May 2027	7 Jun 2027	4 Jun 2027	12 May 2027	4 Jun 2027
Max Redemption	269%	217%	141%	213%	158%
Cap Trigger (underlying)	$410 (+83%)	$98 (+63%)	$256 (+12%)	$78 (+78%)	$111 (+28%)
Can buy now at	102%	106%	110%	89%	101%
Value at expiry (current spot)	102%	97%	115%	88%	102%
Profit at maturity (%)	−0.3%	−8%	+5%	−1%	+1%
Profit at maturity (% p.a.)	−0.4% p.a.	−12% p.a.	+7% p.a.	−2% p.a.	+2% p.a.
Discount to Fair Value	−0pp	−9pp	+5pp	−1pp	+1pp
Breakeven (from ref)	$224 (+0.1%↑)	$64 (+6%↑)	$223 (−3%)	$45 (+1%↑)	$87 (−0.6%)

Theo = 1 + 2 × max(Ref/Fix − 1, 0), capped at Max Redemption; floored at Ref/Fix (1:1 downside) below fix. MTM = Theo/Offer − 1. Ref prices 14 Aug 2026 (Yahoo EOD); offers 19 Sep 2026.

Payoff Scenarios (at maturity, per $100K invested)

NBISXS3356543580

Outperf Bonus 200% · May 2027

0 −0.3% +164%

−0.3%

−$292

Fix $222 ·Ref $224 ·BE $224 (+0.1%)

NBIS +20% → $340+39%

NBIS +10% → $312+19%

Today $284 (+28% above fix)−0.3%

BE: NBIS −14% → $2440.0%

NBIS −10% → $255−11%

NBIS −20% → $227−21%

DRAMXS3373055394

Outperf 200% · Jun 2027

0 −8% +105%

−8%

−$8,334

Fix $62 ·Ref $60 ·BE $64 (+6%)

DRAM +20% → $97 (CAP)+26%

DRAM +10% → $89 (CAP)+7%

Today $81 (+31% above fix, CAP)−8%

BE: DRAM −15% → $680.0%

DRAM −10% → $73−18%

DRAM −20% → $65−27%

NVDAXS3356546336

Outperf 200% · Jun 2027

0 +5% ✓ +28%

+5%

+$4,935

Fix $213 ·Ref $229 ·BE $223 (−3%)

NVDA +20% → $250+28%

NVDA +10% → $230+25%

Today $209 (−2% below fix)+5%

BE: NVDA +3% → $2140.0%

NVDA −10% → $188 (below fix)−12%

NVDA −20% → $167 (below fix)−22%

IRENXS3334497818

Outperf 200% · May 2027

0 −1% +139%

−1%

−$1,163

Fix $50 ·Ref $44 ·BE $45 (+1%)

GEV +20% → $1,353+25%

GEV +10% → $1,240+9%

Today $1,128 (+4% above fix)−1%

BE: GEV −1% → $1,1160.0%

GEV −10% → $1,015 (below fix)−11%

GEV −20% → $902 (below fix)−21%

COPXXS3373010969

Outperf 200% · Jun 2027

0 +1% ✓ +57%

+1%

+$1,103

Fix $86 ·Ref $87 ·BE $87 (−0.6%)

COPX +20% → $102 (CAP)+41%

COPX +10% → $93+21%

Today $85 (−1% below fix)+1%

BE: COPX +2% → $870.0%

COPX −10% → $76 (below fix)−10%

COPX −20% → $68 (below fix)−20%

📌 Key Takeaways

●NBIS +29% MTM: Spot $284 is +28% above fix $222. Offer 120% (incl. 3% DF) → Theo 155% → MTM +29%. BE $244 already exceeded. Cap $410 (+44% from spot) → max +124%.

●DRAM +31% MTM — best: Spot $81 is +31% above fix $62. Offer 121% (incl. 3% DF). Theo at cap 159% → MTM +31%. BE $68 already exceeded. Spot already past cap $80 → locked at max +31%. HBM3e demand cycle intact.

●GEV +2% MTM: Offer 105% (incl. 1.5% DF). Spot $1,128 is +4% above fix $1,088. Theo 107% → MTM +2%. BE $1,116 (−1% from spot, just cleared). Cap $1,390 (+23%) → max +48%. Backlog $163B.

●NVDA −3% MTM — worst: Spot $209 is −2% just below fix $213. Offer 101% (incl. 1.5% DF) → Theo 98% → MTM −3%. BE $214 (+3% above spot). Cap $256 (+23%) → max +39%. Any move above $214 turns profitable.

●COPX −3% MTM: Spot $85 is −1% just below fix $86. Offer 101% (incl. 1.5% DF) → Theo 99% → MTM −3%. BE $87 (+2% above spot — needs recovery). Cap $99 (+16%) → max +28%.

Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS)

GPU Cloud · AI Infra

▼

Nebius Group NV (formerly Yandex NV, NASDAQ: NBIS) is a European-jurisdiction pure-play GPU cloud provider building large-scale AI infrastructure. Q1 2026 revenue ~$120M (+5× YoY). Path to EBITDA breakeven in 2026–2027. Only institutional-grade GPU cloud under EU jurisdiction. Also includes Toloka (data labeling) and Avride (autonomous vehicles).

Fix

$222

Ref

$284

vs Fix

+28%

Offer

120%

MTM

+29%

Cap

$410

Today

$284

+28% above fix · MTM +29%

Entry (Strike)

$222

Fixing level

⚠ Risk: Barrier = Strike = $222 — if NBIS closes below fix at maturity → Physical Settlement in shares. BE = $244 (−14%). Pre-profitability with ~70% IV.

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Research	Citi	$287	BUY
Research	Morgan Stanley	$144	EW
Research	DA Davidson	$250	NEUTRAL

Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM)

Memory · HBM · AI Silicon

▼

Roundhill Memory ETF (BATS: DRAM) launched April 2026, provides pure-play exposure to global memory semiconductor stocks including SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the critical bottleneck of AI accelerators — NVIDIA Blackwell GB200 requires 288GB HBM3e/GPU, 3× more than H100. Memory cycle in structural deficit driven by AI demand.

Fix

$62

Ref

$81

vs Fix

+31%

Offer

121%

MTM

+31%

Cap

$80

Today

$81

+31% above fix · MTM +31%

Entry (Strike)

$62

Fixing level

New ETF (Apr 2026): limited AUM and liquidity history. HBM cycle may reverse on Samsung capacity expansion. Physical delivery below fix $62 (Morgan Stanley). 52-week range: $26.14–$70.15.

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Research	—	—	New ETF
MU proxy	JPMorgan	upd	OW
HBM thesis	Mizuho	upd	BUY

NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)

GPU · AI Compute

▼

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates the AI GPU compute stack. Q1 FY2027 (May 2026): revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY), Data Center $75.2B (+92%), Blackwell "sold out." Consensus target $296–303 (+32–35%). Gross margin ~76%, CUDA software lock-in creates deep moat.

Fix

$213

Ref

$209

vs Fix

−2%

Offer

101%

MTM

−3%

Cap

$256

Today

$209

−2% below fix · MTM −3%

Entry (Strike)

$213

Fixing level

61 analysts · Strong Buy consensus. Target $296–303 (+32–35%). Export restrictions on H20/Blackwell to China remain a risk (−10–15% TAM impact). Verify at Perplexity ↗

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Harlan Sur	JPMorgan	upd	OW
Joseph Moore	Morgan Stanley	upd	OW
Vijay Rakesh	Mizuho	upd	BUY
C.J. Muse	Evercore ISI	upd	OW

IREN Ltd (NASDAQ: IREN)

BTC Mining · AI Compute

▼

IREN Ltd (formerly Iris Energy, NASDAQ: IREN) is a Bitcoin mining and AI cloud compute company headquartered in Vancouver, operating large-scale renewable-powered data centers and expanding GPU capacity for AI workloads. Below fix: spot $44 is −12% below fix $50.02 — offer 89%, MTM −1.2%. 100% downside participation applies 1:1 below fix.

Fix

$50.02

Ref

$44.00

vs Fix

−12%

Offer

89%

MTM

−1%

Cap

$78.30

Today

$44.00

−12% below fix · MTM −1%

Entry (Strike)

$50.02

Fixing level

Consensus $43–131, avg $79 (Strong Buy, 17 analysts). Cap $78 sits near the analyst low — recovery to consensus average would clear the cap. Verify at Perplexity ↗

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
D. Holt	HC Wainwright	$28	BUY
Research	Canaccord	upd	BUY
Research	Roth MKM	upd	BUY

Global X Copper Miners (COPX)

Metals · Commodities

▼

Global X Copper Miners ETF (AMEX: COPX) provides exposure to ~40 global copper mining companies. AUM ~$2B. Structural copper deficit: 500K+ t/year, 15 years of underinvestment in new mines. Copper +50% over 2 years; COPX leverage ~1.5× to copper price. AI data centers require 2× more copper per MW. UBS target $15,500/t (+15% from ~$9,500–9,800/t LME).

Fix

$86

Ref

$85

vs Fix

−1%

Offer

101%

MTM

−3%

Cap

$99

Today

$85

−1% below fix · MTM −3%

Entry (Strike)

$86

Fixing level

Cap $99 (+16% from spot): Offer 101%, spot −1% below fix → MTM −3%, BE $87 (+2% above spot). Physical delivery below $86 (Morgan Stanley A+). China demand (40% global consumption) is key risk. Verify at Perplexity ↗

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Commodities	UBS	$15,500/t	BUY Cu
Research	Goldman Sachs	upd	BUY
Research	JPMorgan	upd	OW

Summary

Five secondary-market 200% Outperformance Certificates. NBIS, NVDA, COPX above fix. MTM per $100K: +$4,935 (NVDA), +$1,103 (COPX), −$292 (NBIS), −$1,163 (IREN), −$8,334 (DRAM).

Prepared by Blanc Wealth Management · @blanc_charts
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Based on reference prices as of 19 September 2026 (Yahoo Finance EOD) and Decentia offers as of 19 September 2026 (incl. distribution fee) and term sheet conditions. Structured products carry capital loss risk — 100% downside participation applies below fix (IREN/NVDA), with physical delivery for COPX and DRAM below fix, and physical settlement for NBIS if spot < $222 at maturity. Credit risk: Marex Financial (Collateralized, BBB/S&P), Morgan Stanley (A+/S&P). For qualified investors only.

АРБИТРАЖ Arbitrage на IREN · NVDA · COPX · NBIS · DRAM