GEV · NVDA · COPX · NBIS · DRAM — Arbitrage Notes II

Thesis

Five secondary-market 200% Outperformance Certificates on GEV, NVDA, COPX, NBIS and DRAM. All carry 200% upside / 100% downside participation, 12-month duration. NBIS (+28%), DRAM (+31%) and GEV (+4%) now trade above fix. NVDA (−2%) and COPX (−1%) just below fix. MTM: DRAM +31% · NBIS +29% · GEV +2% · COPX −3% · NVDA −3%. DRAM best MTM (+31%). Issuers: Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P) for GEV/NVDA/NBIS; Morgan Stanley (A+/S&P) for COPX/DRAM. Ref prices 22 Jun 2026.

Best MTM

+31%

DRAM — offer 121% ↑

GEV Offer

105%

GEV offer · MTM +2% ↑

Max Gain (NBIS)

+124%

At cap, from offer ↓

Product Parameters — 5 Certificates

Parameter	NBIS +29% ✓ / +124%	DRAM +31% ✓ / +31%🔒	NVDA −3% ⚠ / +39%	GEV +2% ✓ / +48%	COPX −3% ⚠ / +28%
Rank (by MTM)	#1 BEST	#2	#4	#3	#5 WORST
ISIN	XS3356543580	XS3373055394	XS3356546336	XS3356545288	XS3373010969
Issuer	Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P)	Morgan Stanley (A+)	Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P)	Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P)	Morgan Stanley (A+)
Underlying	Nebius Group (NBIS)	Roundhill Mem. ETF	NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)	GE Vernova (GEV)	Global X Copper ETF
Type	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%	Outperf Bonus 200%
Participation	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn	200% up / 100% dn
Initial Fix / Strike	$222	$62	$213	$1,088	$86
Ref Price (today)	$284 (+28%)	$81 (+31%)	$209 (−2%)	$1,128 (+4%)	$85 (−1%)
Above Entry	+28%	+31%	−2%	+4%	−1%
Maturity	28 May 2027	7 Jun 2027	4 Jun 2027	4 Jun 2027	4 Jun 2027
Max Redemption	269%	159%	141%	156%	129%
Cap Trigger (underlying)	$410 (+44%)	$80 (−1%)	$256 (+23%)	$1,390 (+23%)	$99 (+16%)
Can buy now at	120%	121%	101%	105%	101%
Value at expiry (current spot)	155%	159%	98%	107%	99%
Profit at maturity (%)	+29%	+31%	−3%	+2%	−3%
Profit at maturity (% p.a.)	+31% p.a.	+32% p.a.	−3% p.a.	+2% p.a.	−3% p.a.
Discount to Fair Value	+35pp	+37pp	−3pp	+2pp	−3pp
Breakeven (from ref)	$244 (−14%)	$68 (−15%)	$214 (+3%↑)	$1,116 (−1%)	$87 (+2%↑)

Theo = 1 + 2 × max(Ref/Fix − 1, 0), capped at Max Redemption; floored at Ref/Fix (1:1 downside) below fix. MTM = Theo/Offer − 1. Ref prices 22 Jun 2026 (Yahoo EOD): NBIS $284 · DRAM $81 · NVDA $209 · GEV $1,128 · COPX $85. Offers (incl. distribution fee): NBIS 120% (3% DF) · DRAM 121% (3% DF) · NVDA 101% (1.5% DF) · GEV 105% (1.5% DF) · COPX 101% (1.5% DF). DRAM best MTM (+31%). NVDA worst, MTM −3%.

Payoff Scenarios (at maturity, per $100K invested)

NBISXS3356543580

Outperf Bonus 200% · May 2027

0 +29% ✓ +124%

+29%

+$29,374

Fix $222 ·Ref $284 ·BE $244 (−14%)

NBIS +20% → $340+72%

NBIS +10% → $312+51%

Today $284 (+28% above fix)+29%

BE: NBIS −14% → $2440.0%

NBIS −10% → $255+8%

NBIS −20% → $227−13%

DRAMXS3373055394

Outperf 200% · Jun 2027

0 +31% ✓ +31%🔒

+31%

+$30,560

Fix $62 ·Ref $81 ·BE $68 (−15%)

DRAM +20% → $97 (CAP)+31%

DRAM +10% → $89 (CAP)+31%

Today $81 (+31% above fix, CAP)+31%

BE: DRAM −15% → $680.0%

DRAM −10% → $73+11%

DRAM −20% → $65−10%

NVDAXS3356546336

Outperf 200% · Jun 2027

0 −3% ⚠ +39%

−3%

−$3,213

Fix $213 ·Ref $209 ·BE $214 (+3%↑)

NVDA +20% → $250+34%

NVDA +10% → $230+14%

Today $209 (−2% below fix)−3%

BE: NVDA +3% → $2140.0%

NVDA −10% → $188 (below fix)−13%

NVDA −20% → $167 (below fix)−23%

GEVXS3356545288

Outperf 200% · Jun 2027

0 +2% ✓ +48%

+2%

+$1,962

Fix $1,088 ·Ref $1,128 ·BE $1,116 (−1%)

GEV +20% → $1,353+41%

GEV +10% → $1,240+22%

Today $1,128 (+4% above fix)+2%

BE: GEV −1% → $1,1160.0%

GEV −10% → $1,015 (below fix)−11%

GEV −20% → $902 (below fix)−21%

COPXXS3373010969

Outperf 200% · Jun 2027

0 −3% ⚠ +28%

−3%

−$2,563

Fix $86 ·Ref $85 ·BE $87 (+2%↑)

COPX +20% → $102 (CAP)+28%

COPX +10% → $93+16%

Today $85 (−1% below fix)−3%

BE: COPX +2% → $870.0%

COPX −10% → $76 (below fix)−12%

COPX −20% → $68 (below fix)−22%

📌 Key Takeaways

●NBIS +29% MTM: Spot $284 is +28% above fix $222. Offer 120% (incl. 3% DF) → Theo 155% → MTM +29%. BE $244 already exceeded. Cap $410 (+44% from spot) → max +124%.

●DRAM +31% MTM — best: Spot $81 is +31% above fix $62. Offer 121% (incl. 3% DF). Theo at cap 159% → MTM +31%. BE $68 already exceeded. Spot already past cap $80 → locked at max +31%. HBM3e demand cycle intact.

●GEV +2% MTM: Offer 105% (incl. 1.5% DF). Spot $1,128 is +4% above fix $1,088. Theo 107% → MTM +2%. BE $1,116 (−1% from spot, just cleared). Cap $1,390 (+23%) → max +48%. Backlog $163B.

●NVDA −3% MTM — worst: Spot $209 is −2% just below fix $213. Offer 101% (incl. 1.5% DF) → Theo 98% → MTM −3%. BE $214 (+3% above spot). Cap $256 (+23%) → max +39%. Any move above $214 turns profitable.

●COPX −3% MTM: Spot $85 is −1% just below fix $86. Offer 101% (incl. 1.5% DF) → Theo 99% → MTM −3%. BE $87 (+2% above spot — needs recovery). Cap $99 (+16%) → max +28%.

Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS)

GPU Cloud · AI Infra

▼

Nebius Group NV (formerly Yandex NV, NASDAQ: NBIS) is a European-jurisdiction pure-play GPU cloud provider building large-scale AI infrastructure. Q1 2026 revenue ~$120M (+5× YoY). Path to EBITDA breakeven in 2026–2027. Only institutional-grade GPU cloud under EU jurisdiction. Also includes Toloka (data labeling) and Avride (autonomous vehicles).

Fix

$222

Ref

$284

vs Fix

+28%

Offer

120%

MTM

+29%

Cap

$410

Today

$284

+28% above fix · MTM +29%

Entry (Strike)

$222

Fixing level

⚠ Risk: Barrier = Strike = $222 — if NBIS closes below fix at maturity → Physical Settlement in shares. BE = $244 (−14%). Pre-profitability with ~70% IV.

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Research	Citi	$287	BUY
Research	Morgan Stanley	$144	EW
Research	DA Davidson	$250	NEUTRAL

Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM)

Memory · HBM · AI Silicon

▼

Roundhill Memory ETF (BATS: DRAM) launched April 2026, provides pure-play exposure to global memory semiconductor stocks including SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the critical bottleneck of AI accelerators — NVIDIA Blackwell GB200 requires 288GB HBM3e/GPU, 3× more than H100. Memory cycle in structural deficit driven by AI demand.

Fix

$62

Ref

$81

vs Fix

+31%

Offer

121%

MTM

+31%

Cap

$80

Today

$81

+31% above fix · MTM +31%

Entry (Strike)

$62

Fixing level

New ETF (Apr 2026): limited AUM and liquidity history. HBM cycle may reverse on Samsung capacity expansion. Physical delivery below fix $62 (Morgan Stanley). 52-week range: $26.14–$70.15.

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Research	—	—	New ETF
MU proxy	JPMorgan	upd	OW
HBM thesis	Mizuho	upd	BUY

NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)

GPU · AI Compute

▼

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) dominates the AI GPU compute stack. Q1 FY2027 (May 2026): revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY), Data Center $75.2B (+92%), Blackwell "sold out." Consensus target $296–303 (+32–35%). Gross margin ~76%, CUDA software lock-in creates deep moat.

Fix

$213

Ref

$209

vs Fix

−2%

Offer

101%

MTM

−3%

Cap

$256

Today

$209

−2% below fix · MTM −3%

Entry (Strike)

$213

Fixing level

61 analysts · Strong Buy consensus. Target $296–303 (+32–35%). Export restrictions on H20/Blackwell to China remain a risk (−10–15% TAM impact). Verify at Perplexity ↗

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Harlan Sur	JPMorgan	upd	OW
Joseph Moore	Morgan Stanley	upd	OW
Vijay Rakesh	Mizuho	upd	BUY
C.J. Muse	Evercore ISI	upd	OW

GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV)

Power · AI Infra

▼

GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) is the dominant provider of gas turbines, transformers and grid solutions — the physical backbone of AI data center power. Backlog: record $163B. Q1 2026 orders $18.3B, book-to-bill >1.9×. AI data centers consume 5–10× more power than traditional compute. Spot $1,128 is +4% above fix $1,088 — offer at 105%, MTM +2%. Already above fix; participation now in the 200% upside zone.

Fix

$1,088

Ref

$1,128

vs Fix

+4%

Offer

105%

MTM

+2%

Cap

$1,390

Today

$1,128

+4% above fix · MTM +2%

Entry (Strike)

$1,088

Fixing level

Consensus $1,050–1,200 (−5% to +8% from spot). Cap $1,390 above all analyst targets — full upside within note structure. Verify at Perplexity ↗

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Research	Goldman Sachs	upd	BUY
Research	Bank of America	upd	BUY
Research	UBS	upd	NEUTRAL

Global X Copper Miners (COPX)

Metals · Commodities

▼

Global X Copper Miners ETF (AMEX: COPX) provides exposure to ~40 global copper mining companies. AUM ~$2B. Structural copper deficit: 500K+ t/year, 15 years of underinvestment in new mines. Copper +50% over 2 years; COPX leverage ~1.5× to copper price. AI data centers require 2× more copper per MW. UBS target $15,500/t (+15% from ~$9,500–9,800/t LME).

Fix

$86

Ref

$85

vs Fix

−1%

Offer

101%

MTM

−3%

Cap

$99

Today

$85

−1% below fix · MTM −3%

Entry (Strike)

$86

Fixing level

Cap $99 (+16% from spot): Offer 101%, spot −1% below fix → MTM −3%, BE $87 (+2% above spot). Physical delivery below $86 (Morgan Stanley A+). China demand (40% global consumption) is key risk. Verify at Perplexity ↗

Analyst	Firm	Target	Rating
Commodities	UBS	$15,500/t	BUY Cu
Research	Goldman Sachs	upd	BUY
Research	JPMorgan	upd	OW

Summary

Five secondary-market 200% Outperformance Certificates across AI infrastructure, memory, copper and GPU cloud. NBIS, DRAM and GEV now above fix. MTM per $100K: +$30,560 (DRAM), +$29,374 (NBIS), +$1,962 (GEV), −$2,563 (COPX), −$3,213 (NVDA). DRAM best-positioned (+31% MTM). GEV now +4% above fix — MTM +2% in the 200% upside zone. Issuers: Marex (Collateralized, BBB/S&P) for GEV/NVDA/NBIS; Morgan Stanley (A+/S&P) for COPX/DRAM. Reference prices 22 Jun 2026 (Yahoo EOD); Decentia offers 22 Jun 2026.

Prepared by Blanc Wealth Management · @blanc_charts
Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Based on reference prices as of 22 June 2026 (Yahoo Finance EOD) and Decentia offers as of 22 June 2026 (incl. distribution fee) and term sheet conditions. Structured products carry capital loss risk — 100% downside participation applies below fix (GEV/NVDA), with physical delivery for COPX and DRAM below fix, and physical settlement for NBIS if spot < $222 at maturity. Credit risk: Marex Financial (Collateralized, BBB/S&P), Morgan Stanley (A+/S&P). For qualified investors only.

АРБИТРАЖ Arbitrage на GEV · NVDA · COPX · NBIS · DRAM