KOREA SEMICONDUCTOR EXPORT MONITOR
Memory Cycle Early Warning System — May 2026
● BOOM PHASE
Korean monthly semiconductor exports are a 2–4 week leading indicator of the global memory cycle. South Korea accounts for ~80–85% of global memory supply (Samsung + SK Hynix). When the data turns, you see it here before stocks price it in.

Why Korea? South Korea is home to Samsung and SK Hynix — the two largest memory producers on Earth. Roughly 80–85% of Korea's total semiconductor exports are memory. When Korean export data accelerates or decelerates, you are watching the global memory cycle move in near-real-time, with a 2–4 week lag from shipment to official publication.

Data source: Korea Customs Service / KITA (Korea International Trade Association) — stat.kita.net. Published monthly around the 1st of each following month. Update this dashboard each month by replacing the DATA array at the top of the script.

The sell signal (from Singularity Research framework): Memory cycles do not gently roll over — they snap. The signal fires when multiple trend lines decline simultaneously: (1) moving average crossover, (2) consecutive months of declining YoY growth, (3) exports falling below their 6-month average. Rule: if trend lines are declining and industry chatter is bullish, follow the trend lines — not the chatter.

Current read (as of Apr 2025): Cycle remains in boom phase. YoY growth is decelerating from peak (+66% Feb 2024) but still strongly positive. No turn signal has fired. Monitoring for deceleration inflection.

Portfolio relevance: This dashboard is the early-exit framework for memory-linked positions — direct equity, structured products, and DRAM ETF exposure.

Latest Month Export
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YoY Growth
vs same month prior year
6-Month Moving Avg
vs current month
Turn Signal
0 of 3 conditions fired
📈 Monthly Export Value + 6M Moving Average
Export Value ($B)
6M Moving Average
🔄 YoY Export Growth (%) — Cycle Momentum
Positive YoY
Negative YoY
Deceleration Watch
Turn Signal Dashboard
0 / 3 Signals Active
Monthly Data Table
Source: MOTIE / Korea Herald — data through Apr 2026 · est = interpolated
MonthExport ($B)YoY %MoM %6M MA ($B)vs 6M MASignal
Data Notice: Data through Apr 2026. Primary source: MOTIE monthly releases (Korea Herald). Confirmed months marked in code; estimated months (May–Aug 2025, Oct 2025) derived from annual total ($173.4B) and trend. YoY for Jan–Mar 2025 corrected vs. initial build — Q1 2025 was a genuine soft patch before the AI supercycle. Update monthly from stat.kita.net or Korea Herald. All figures in USD billions. Internal monitoring only — not investment advice.